Description

This analysis provides a forecast of DIA prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.473402 0.527020 0.587000 0.659627 0.745947 0.846236 0.973025
2025-05-11 0.419560 0.490131 0.574982 0.686405 0.831821 1.019615 1.288401
2025-05-18 0.365890 0.441699 0.537535 0.671001 0.858014 1.120905 1.539447
2025-05-25 0.322322 0.398630 0.498786 0.644733 0.861185 1.187792 1.759132
2025-06-01 0.298218 0.377261 0.484758 0.648459 0.905481 1.323097 2.133798
2025-06-08 0.285505 0.369273 0.487283 0.675235 0.988552 1.540699 2.751306
2025-06-15 0.269745 0.355035 0.478611 0.682757 1.040646 1.717877 3.382002
2025-06-22 0.253353 0.338155 0.463842 0.677823 1.069259 1.857645 4.011943
2025-06-29 0.239174 0.323211 0.450314 0.672701 1.095913 2.000908 4.756424
2025-07-06 0.222639 0.303411 0.427279 0.648152 1.080366 2.045679 5.238594
2025-07-13 0.215536 0.297453 0.425727 0.661164 1.142304 2.294520 6.684134
2025-07-20 0.209161 0.292082 0.424508 0.674399 1.207297 2.577565 8.682113
2025-07-27 0.200665 0.283064 0.416911 0.675685 1.248961 2.823733 11.043959
2025-08-03 0.193746 0.276104 0.412207 0.681996 1.304096 3.140703 14.736523
2025-08-10 0.182489 0.261365 0.392826 0.656670 1.277523 3.180652 16.562555
2025-08-17 0.171424 0.246378 0.372052 0.626508 1.233999 3.147730 17.760385
2025-08-24 0.165877 0.240272 0.366677 0.627728 1.271857 3.434637 23.772915
2025-08-31 0.163975 0.240122 0.371957 0.652022 1.377157 4.060670 40.642592
2025-09-07 0.159796 0.235827 0.369243 0.658538 1.434851 4.533743 64.540421
2025-09-14 0.154461 0.229247 0.361777 0.653539 1.457812 4.863586 96.381202
2025-09-21 0.149488 0.223053 0.354634 0.648524 1.479995 5.214666 154.116139
2025-09-28 0.142679 0.213340 0.340193 0.625152 1.439802 5.188427 185.604255
2025-10-05 0.140369 0.211471 0.340812 0.637462 1.518625 5.962086 552.675422